PANIC SWINE OF O9
The Sudden Birth of H1N1 “Swine” Flu: What Does the Future Hold?
Posted by Journal Watch Editors • May 2009 •
Pigs, birds, and humans are each susceptible to many flu viruses. Typically, these viruses infect only one species. However, sometimes these viruses swap genes and create new viruses that can infect more than one species. Even then, new viruses that are capable of infecting two species typically are very difficult to transmit from human to human. Sometimes, however, further recombinations or mutations of genes create a virus that can spread rapidly among humans – thus creating a global pandemic. The worst global pandemic in modern times was the flu pandemic of 1918-1919. It affected about a third of the human race and killed at least 40 million people in roughly 1 year.
June 2009
On April 17, 2009, near the end of the usual influenza season in the Northern Hemisphere, officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed two cases of swine influenza (swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) strain (S-OIV), widely known as swine flu) in children living in neighboring counties in California. Genetic analysis of the strains showed that they were derived from a new reassortment of six gene segments from the known triple reassortant swine virus, and two gene segments from the Eurasian influenza A (H1N1) swine virus lineage.
Simultaneous Appearance in Humans and Swine (1918)
Before 1918, influenza in humans was well known, but the disease had never been described in pigs. For pig farmers in
The breakthrough came in 1931 when Robert Shope, a veterinarian, transmitted the infectious agent of swine influenza from sick pigs, by filtering their virus containing secretions, to healthy animals.7 Infectivity of the filtrate was subsequently confirmed by Smith, Andrewes, and Laidlaw, who used the ferret model of influenza infection to document transmissibility for both human and swine viruses.
The Persistent Legacy of the 1918 Influenza Virus NEJM
It is remarkable not only that direct "all-eight-gene" descendants of the 1918 virus still circulate in humans as epidemic H1N1 viruses and in swine as epizootic H1N1 viruses, but also that for the past 50 years the original virus and its progeny have continually donated genes to new viruses to cause new pandemics, epidemics, and epizootics. The novel H1N1 virus associated with the ongoing 2009 pandemic is a fourth-generation descendant of the 1918 virus. The complex evolutionary history of this virus features genetic mixing both within human viruses and between avian- and swine-adapted influenza viruses, gene-segment evolution in multiple species, and evolution in response to the selection pressures of herd immunity in various populations at various points in time. The fact that this novel H1N1 influenza A virus has become a pandemic virus expands the previous definition of the term.
If there is good news, it is that successive pandemics and pandemic-like events generally appear to be decreasing in severity over time. This diminution is surely due in part to advances in medicine and public health, but it may also reflect viral evolutionary "choices" that favor optimal transmissibility with minimal pathogenicity — a virus that kills its hosts or sends them to bed is not optimally transmissible. Although we must be prepared to deal with the possibility of a new and clinically severe influenza pandemic caused by an entirely new virus, we must also understand in greater depth, and continue to explore, the determinants and dynamics of the pandemic era in which we live.
CNN March 2009
Doctors: No definitive answers on flu deaths among young
For most, the flu is a winter inconvenience -- stuffy nose, fever, body aches and a few days of bed rest. But what seems fairly routine also can become life-threatening. The virus causes inflammation throughout the body and disturbs the functions of the body, including breathing. Typically half of the flu deaths occur in children who have degenerative heart or lung disease or immune risk factors, but the other half are seemingly healthy. "There isn't a good understanding of why that happens," said Dr. John Treanor, professor of medicine and of microbiology and immunology at the University of Rochester School of Medicine.
"There's speculation that these children, for genetic reasons,had unusual immune response to the flu, resulting in deaths."
CDC Confirms Ties to Virus First Discovered in
Starting in the early 1990s, the
The majority of
Researchers also found that when farms were packed close together, as is increasingly the case in high pig-density areas of North America and Europe, pigs appeared to have up to 16.7 times the odds of testing positive for swine flu. "Close location enhances the possibility for windborne, personnel, and fomites disease transmission from one farm to another." The "spread of pig slurry [urine and feces]" on nearby land may also play a role.
Good News 2009 H1N1 Influenza ("Swine Flu")
JOURNAL WATCH NEJM SEPT 2009
Investigators from the CDC tested stored sera from recent flu vaccine trials to determine the prevalence of natural immunity to 2009 pandemic H1N1 and the effect of previous vaccination.
Serum samples from 100 infants and children who received flu vaccines during the past 4 years were evaluated: Preexisting immunity to pandemic H1N1 was uniformly negligible, and vaccination with standard seasonal vaccines did not boost titers.
A survey of serum samples from blood donors showed that 11 older donors (born between 1912–1920) all had high titers of pandemic H1N1 antibodies; (34%) who were born before 1950 had high titers, and (54%) who had received swine flu vaccine in 1976 had high titers.
JealousBrother.com
What does the CDC consider a confirmed case of Swine Flu?
The CDC uses the following guidelines: A confirmed case of novel influenza A (H1 N1 ) virus infection is defined as a person with an Influenza-like illness (
1. real-time RT-PCR
2. viral culture
The CDC has this to say about the real-time RT-PCR test, “If reactivty of real-time RT-PCR for influenza A is strong it is more suggestive of a novel influenza A (H1 N1 ) virus. Confirmation as novel influenza A (H1 N1 ) virus by real-time RT-PCR was originally performed only at CDC, but at this time may be available in your state public health laboratory ."
What I’m left wandering is how something based on suggestion turns conclusive. I couldn’t find any information where the CDC elaborates.
The CDC has this to say about Viral Cultures: “Isolation of novel influenza A (H1 N1 ) virus is diagnostic of infection, but may not yield timely results for clinical management. A negative viral culture does not exclude infection with novel influenza A (H1 N1 ) virus.” Seeing the word “Diagnostic” is a move in the right direction but I am a bit discouraged when they say a negative culture does not exclude an infection. My hopes are this leaves room for hum an error when collecting the cultures and isn’t proclaiming the culture test itself is flawed.
So what exactly am I getting at? There is no way for a physician or health organization to definitively tell a patient whether they have H1 N1 , H3 N2 , or any other Influenza A sub-type (Which includes seasonal flu) when using readily available RIDT’s. The only diagnostic results com e from the lengthy process of laboratory analyzed cultures and rRt-PCR swine flu panels.
JealousBrother.com is a social network that thrives on disagreement.
Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 2008 Oct
Influenza vaccine effectiveness among children 6 to 59 months of age during 2 influenza seasons: a case-cohort study.
OBJECTIVE: To measure vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing influenza-related health care visits among children aged 6 to 59 months during 2 consecutive influenza seasons.
RESULTS: During the 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 seasons,. However, significant influenza VE could not be demonstrated for any season, age, or setting after adjusting for county, sex, insurance, chronic conditions recommended for influenza vaccination, and timing of influenza vaccination (VE estimates ranged from 7%-52% across settings and seasons for fully vaccinated 6- to 59-month-olds).
CONCLUSION: In 2 seasons with suboptimal antigenic match between vaccines and circulating strains, we could not demonstrate VE in preventing influenza related inpatient/ED or outpatient visits in children younger than 5 years.
THESE AUTHORS ALSO NOTE:
“The US and several other countries have expanded their childhood influenza vaccination recommendations in response to evidence that influenza disease causes substantial morbidity among young children.” In June 2006, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended annual influenza vaccination for all children aged 6 to 59 months. “An inherent assumption of expanded vaccination recommendations is that the vaccine is efficacious in preventing clinical influenza disease.”
“Surprisingly little information exists regarding influenza vaccine effectiveness among young children receiving vaccine in routine health care settings.”
Swine Flu Cases Overestimated?
CBS News Exclusive:
Study Of State Results Finds H1N1 Not As Prevalent As Feared
If you've been diagnosed "probable" or "presumed" 2009 H1N1 or "swine flu" in recent months, you may be surprised to know this: odds are you didn’t have H1N1 flu. In fact, you probably didn’t have flu at all. That's according to state-by-state test results obtained in a three-month-long CBS News investigation.
The ramifications of this finding are important. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and
Why the uncertainty about who has and who hasn't had H1N1 flu?
In late July, the CDC abruptly advised states to stop testing for H1N1 flu, and stopped counting individual cases. The rationale given for the CDC guidance to forego testing and tracking individual cases was: why waste resources testing for H1N1 flu when the government has already confirmed there's an epidemic?
Some public health officials privately disagreed with the decision to stop testing and counting, telling CBS News that continued tracking of this new and possibly changing virus was important because H1N1 has a different epidemiology, affects younger people more than seasonal flu and has been shown to have a higher case fatality rate than other flu virus strains.
CBS News learned that the decision to stop counting H1N1 flu cases was made so hastily that states weren't given the opportunity to provide input. Instead, on July 24, the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists, CSTE, issued the following notice to state public health officials on behalf of the CDC:
"Attached are the Q&As that will be posted on the CDC website tomorrow explaining why CDC is no longer reporting case counts for novel H1N1. CDC would have liked to have run these by you for input but unfortunately there was not enough time before these needed to be posted (emphasis added)."
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=5633819n&tag=cbsnewsVideoArea;cbsnewsVideoArea.0
Freedom of Information: Stalled at CDC and D.C. Government
In August 2009, CBS News made a simple request of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for public documents, e-mails and other materials CDC used to communicate to states the decision to stop testing individual cases of Novel H1N1, or "swine flu." When the public affairs folks at CDC refused to produce the documents and quit responding to my queries altogether, I filed a formal Freedom of Information (FOI) request for the materials. Members of the news media are entitled to expedited access, which I requested, since this was for a pending news report and on an issue of public health and interest.
The Obama administration made a commitment to a "new era of open government," as stated in a presidential memorandum on the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). On
Two months after my FOI request, the CDC has yet to produce any of these easily retrievable materials. Sadly, this is of little surprise. This has become standard operating procedure in
HEALTH NOVEMBER 2009 ATLANTIC
Does the Vaccine Matter?
More than 200 known viruses and other pathogens can cause the suite of symptoms known as “influenza-like illness”; respiratory syncytial virus, bocavirus, coronavirus, and rhinovirus are just a few of the bugs that can make a person feel rotten. And depending on the season, in up to two-thirds of the cases of flu-like illness, no cause at all can be found.
When Lisa Jackson, a physician and senior investigator with the Group Health Research Center, in Seattle, began wondering aloud to colleagues if maybe something was amiss with the estimate of 50 percent mortality reduction for people who get flu vaccine, the response she got sounded more like doctrine than science. “People told me, ‘No good can come of [asking] this,’” she says. “‘Potentially a lot of bad could happen’ for me professionally by raising any criticism that might dissuade people from getting vaccinated, because of course, ‘We know that vaccine works.’ This was the prevailing wisdom.”
Nonetheless, in 2004, Jackson and three colleagues set out to determine whether the mortality difference between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated might be caused by a phenomenon known the “healthy user effect.” They hypothesized that on average, people who get vaccinated are simply healthier than those who don’t, and thus less liable to die over the short term. People who don’t get vaccinated may be bedridden or otherwise too sick to go get a shot. They may also be more likely succumb to flu or any other illness, because they are generally older and sicker. To test their thesis, Jackson and her colleagues combed through eight years of medical data on more than 72,000 people 65 and older. They looked at who got flu shots and who didn’t. Then they examined which group’s members were more likely to die of any cause when it was not flu season. Jackson’s findings showed that outside of flu season, the baseline risk of death among people who not get vaccinated was approximately 60 percent higher than among those who did, lending support the hypothesis that on average, healthy people chose to get the vaccine, while the “frail elderly” didn’t or couldn’t. In fact, the healthy-user effect explained the entire benefit that other researchers were attributing to flu vaccine, suggesting that the vaccine itself might not reduce mortality all. Jackson’s papers “are beautiful,” says Lone Simonsen, who is a professor of global health at George Washington University, in Washington, D.C., and an internationally recognized expert in influenza and vaccine epidemiology. “They are classic studies in epidemiology, they are so carefully done.”
The results were also so unexpected that many experts simply refused to believe them. Jackson’s papers were turned down for publication in the top ranked medical journals. One flu expert who reviewed her studies for the Journal of the American Medical Association wrote, “To accept these results would be to say that the earth is flat!” When the papers were finally published in
The most vocal—and undoubtedly most vexing—critic of the gospel of flu vaccine is the Cochrane Collaboration’s Jefferson, who’s also an epidemiologist trained at the famed London School of Tropical Hygiene, and who, in Lisa Jackson’s view, makes other skeptics seem “moderate by comparison.” Among his fellow flu researchers, Jefferson’s outspokenness has made him something of a pariah. At a 2007 meeting on pandemic preparedness at a hotel in Bethesda, Maryland, Jefferson, who’d been invited to speak at the conference, was not greeted by any of the colleagues milling about the lobby. He ate his meals in the hotel restaurant alone, surrounded by scientists chatting amiably at other tables. He shrugs off such treatment. As a medical officer working for the United Nations in 1992, during the siege of Sarajevo, he and other peacekeepers were captured and held for more than a month by militiamen brandishing AK-47s and reeking of alcohol. Professional shunning seems trivial by comparison, he says.
“Tom Jefferson has taken a lot of heat just for saying, ‘Here’s the evidence: it’s not very good,’” says Majumdar. “The reaction has been so dogmatic and even hysterical that you’d think he was advocating stealing babies.” Yet while other flu researchers may not like what Jefferson has to say, they cannot ignore the fact that he knows the flu-vaccine literature better than anyone else on the planet. He leads an international team of researchers who have combed through hundreds of flu-vaccine studies. The vast majority of the studies were deeply flawed, says Jefferson. “Rubbish is not a scientific term, but I think it’s the term that applies.” Flu researchers have been fooled into thinking vaccine is more effective than the data suggest, in part, says Jefferson, by the imprecision of the statistics. The only way to know if someone has the flu—as opposed to influenza-like illness—is by putting a Q-tip into the patient’s throat or nose and running a test, which simply isn’t done that often. Likewise, nobody really has a handle on how many of the deaths that are blamed on flu were actually caused by a flu virus, because few are confirmed by a laboratory. “I used to be a family physician,” says Jefferson. “I’ve never seen a patient come to my office with H1N1 written on his forehead. When an old person dies of respiratory failure after an influenza-like illness, they nearly always get coded as influenza.”
IN THE ABSENCE of such evidence, we are left with two possibilities. One is that flu vaccine is in fact highly beneficial, or at least helpful. Solid evidence to that effect would encourage more citizens—and particularly more health professionals—to get their shots and prevent the flu’s spread. As it stands, more than 50 percent of health-care workers say they do not intend to get vaccinated for swine flu and don’t routinely get their shots for seasonal flu, in part because many of them doubt the vaccines’ efficacy. The other possibility, of course, is that we’re relying heavily on vaccines and antivirals that simply don’t work, or don’t work as well as we believe. And as a result, we may be neglecting other, proven measures that could minimize the death rate during pandemics.
“Vaccines give us a false sense of security,” says Sumit Majumdar. “When you have a strategy that [everybody thinks] reduces death by 50 percent, it’s pretty hard to invest resources to come up with better remedies.” For instance, health departments in every state are responsible for submitting plans to the CDC for educating the public, in the event of a serious pandemic, about hand-washing and “social distancing” (voluntary quarantines, school closings, and even enforcement of mandatory quarantines to keep infected people in their homes).
Putting these plans into action will require considerable coordination among government officials, the media, and health-care workers—and widespread buy-in from the public. Yet little discussion has appeared in the press to help people understand the measures they can take to best protect themselves during a flu outbreak—other than vaccination and antivirals.
“Launched early enough and continued long enough, social distancing can blunt the impact of a pandemic,” says Howard Markel, a pediatrician and historian of medicine at the University of Michigan. Washing hands diligently, avoiding public places during an outbreak, and having a supply of canned goods and water on hand are sound defenses, he says. Such steps could be highly effective in helping to slow the spread of the virus. In Mexico, for instance, where the first swine flu cases were identified in March, the government launched an aggressive program to get people to wash their hands and exhorted those who were sick to stay home and effectively quarantine themselves. In the United Kingdom, the national health department is promoting a “buddy” program, encouraging citizens to find a friend or neighbor willing to deliver food and medicine so people who fall ill can stay home.
In the U.S., by contrast, our reliance on vaccination may have the opposite effect: breeding feelings of invulnerability, and leading some people to ignore simple measures like better-than-normal hygiene, staying away from those who are sick, and staying home when they feel ill. Likewise, our encouragement of early treatment with antiviral drugs will likely lead many people to show up at the hospital at first sniffle. “There’s no worse place to go than the hospital during flu season,” says Majumdar. Those who don’t have the flu are more likely to catch it there, and those who do will spread it around, he says. “But we don’t tell people this.”
All of which leaves open the question of what people should do when faced with a decision about whether to get themselves and their families vaccinated. There is little immediate danger from getting a seasonal flu shot, aside from a sore arm and mild flu-like symptoms. The safety of the swine flu vaccine remains to be seen. In the absence of better evidence, vaccines and antivirals must be viewed as only partial and uncertain defenses against the flu. And they may be mere talismans. By being afraid to do the proper studies now, we may be condemning ourselves to using treatments based on illusion and faith rather than sound science.
Fear of Flu: Shifting the Goalposts
KAISER HEALTH NEWS
NOV 2009
Is the 2009 H1N1 more dangerous than garden variety seasonal flu, for healthy kids compared to kids with underlying illnesses? According to a paper published last month in the New England Journal of Medicine, probably not. The authors found that 60 percent of children who were hospitalized with swine flu had underlying illnesses. In years past, only 31 to 43 percent of children who were hospitalized with seasonal flu had similar underlying illnesses – meaning that the rate at which 2009 H1N1 causes serious illness in healthy children is lower than with seasonal flu.
Certainly it appears as if there have been proportionately more deaths among young people than the elderly compared with seasonal flu years, but that’s largely because fewer old people are dying than usual. They may have some residual immunity from being exposed to related viruses in the past, but whatever the reason, the proportion of deaths among younger people is automatically larger this year.
An additional complicating factor: It turns out that the number of reported pediatric flu deaths has been steadily rising each year since 2005 (and possibly earlier). During the 2005-2006 flu season, 46 pediatric lab-confirmed deaths were reported. In 2006-2007 the number rose to 78. By 2007-2008, there were 88 deaths, followed by 115 last year.
Although the number of this year’s deaths will probably rise in coming months, it’s important to compare apples to apples. To date, the number of laboratory-confirmed pediatric deaths is only marginally greater than last year’s – and a disproportionate number of those children have underlying illnesses.
the CDC told us that doctors are probably “doing a better job of reporting.” Better book-keeping, in other words, not more virulent viruses, is responsible for at least part of the apparent increase in pediatric deaths in recent years. Based on this trend alone, we would expect that the number of pediatric deaths would be higher this year than last.
This year, the CDC liberalized the definition of what it counts as a flu death for people over age 18. Until now, only deaths in which the patient had laboratory-confirmed influenza were used to estimate the annual mortality statistics for seasonal flu, which the CDC says causes about 36,000 deaths a year in the
As of August 31, however, the CDC said that anyone 18 years or older who dies with a syndrome known as influenza-like illness, or ILI, can be included in the count. The CDC has no requirement for uniform reporting of flu deaths by the states. Twenty-eight states, according to the agency, report only laboratory-confirmed flu deaths, while the others are now reporting deaths that look to doctors like they might be the result of flu.
That decision could dramatically inflate the numbers of reported flu deaths this year. By the CDC's weekly estimate, when doctors think a patient has the flu, they are wrong between 46 and 82 percent of the time.
Why should any of this matter? In part, because statistics, when filtered by the popular media, can scare the daylights out of the public and feed pandemic worries that may not be justified. The numbers also matter to public policy. As reported deaths rise, the CDC tends to enlarge its recommendation for who should be vaccinated, and who should receive anti-viral drugs. For example, based on rising pediatric deaths, the CDC issued new recommendations in 2009 that all children from 6 months to 18 years should get the flu vaccine each year. Previously, the vaccine was recommended only for high-risk children.
PANDEMIC H1N1 INFLUENZA: PREDICTING THE COURSE OF A PANDEMIC AND ASSESSING THE EFFICACY OF THE PLANNED VACCINATION PROGRAM IN THE UNITED STATES. Department of Statistics,
However, the serological analysis presented in King et al.showed that up to 60% of seasonal influenza infections are asymptomatic [10]. If the same is true of the current pandemic influenza, about a quarter of the population will fall ill.
The most optimistic assumptions about the CDC vaccination campaign yielded a relative reduction of only 6% in the total number of infected individuals. If we assume a 40% symptomatic infection rate, and a mortality rate of between 0.05% and 0.5%, this corresponds to an estimated prevention of between 2,500 and 25,000 deaths. The actual reduction would certainly be lower because 10-30% of adults vaccinated will not achieve immunity.
Also a large fraction of the population targeted by influenza A(H1N1) vaccinations are children. Vaccination immunity in children develops at least four weeks after vaccination and would occur too late in the pandemic to make a significant difference to the number of infected in that age group.
THIS ARTICLE FORTOLD THE FUTURE WELL AS THE VACCINE ARRIVED AFTER THE INCIDENCE OF THE H1N1 FLU HAD STARTED TO BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LESS PREVALENT.
AUSTRALIAN EXPERIENCE
MJA Oct 2009
A pandemic response to a disease of predominantly seasonal intensity
From the recognition of the swine flu pandemic in late April 2009, health professionals, politicians and the public needed to know how serious pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (swine flu) was in relation to other seasonal strains of influenza. The Victorian experience suggests that the circulation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in the community was at most like influenza circulation in a season of moderate seasonal activity.
We have no estimate of the total case count, but we know most infections have been mild. However, while disease in the community appears mild, and the risk of hospitalization is low, a high proportion of patients hospitalized with swine flu required intensive care.
Deaths from swine flu have not been as numerous as the modeled deaths from seasonal influenza, although people dying from swine flu are younger.
Virology Journal
From where did the 2009 'swine-origin' influenza A virus (H1N1) emerge?
Australia
November 2009
The phylogenetic information presently available does not identify the source of S-OIV, however it provides some clues, which can be translated into hypotheses of where and how it might have originated. Two contrasting possibilities have been described and discussed in this commentary, but more data are needed to distinguish between them. It would be especially valuable to have gene sequences of isolates filling the time and phylogenetic gap between those of S-OIV and those closest to it.
We believe that these important sequences are most likely to be found in isolates from as-yet-unsampled pig populations or as-yet-unsampled laboratories, especially those holding isolates of all three clusters of viruses closest to those of S-OIV, and involved in vaccine research and production.
Quarantine and trade records of live pigs entering North America could probably focus the search for the unsampled pig population. It is likely that further information about S-OIV's immediate ancestry will be obtained when the unusual features of its PB1-F2 gene are understood.
JAMA. 2009 Nov 4
Factors associated with death or hospitalization due to pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection in California
CONTEXT: Pandemic influenza A(H1N1) emerged rapidly in
OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical and epidemiologic features of pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1) cases that led to hospitalization or death.
RESULTS: During the study period there were 1088 cases of hospitalization or death due to pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection reported in
CONCLUSIONS: In the first 16 weeks of the current pandemic, the median age of hospitalized infected cases was younger than is common with seasonal influenza. Infants had the highest hospitalization rates and persons aged 50 years or older had the highest mortality rates once hospitalized. Most cases had established risk factors for complications of seasonal influenza.
Pandemic preparedness for swine flu influenza in the United States.
J Environ Pathol Toxicol Oncol. 2009
In March and early April 2009, Mexico experienced outbreaks of influenza caused by the H1N1 virus, which has spread throughout the world. With the pandemic of H1N1 infections, we have discussed in this scientific article strategies that should limit the spread of the influenza A (H1N1) virus in our country. Specific vaccines against the influenza H1N1 virus are being manufactured, and a licensed vaccine is expected to be available in the United States by mid-October 2009. However, some health-care workers may be hesitant to take a vaccine because it contains a mercury preservative-thimerosal-which can be harmful to their health. When caring for patients with respiratory infections, the health-care worker should be wearing a facial respirator. In a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), it was indicated that each healthcare professional should be required to do a respiratory fit testing to identify the ideal model.
Because it has been well documented that a vitamin D deficiency can precipitate the influenza virus, we strongly recommend that all health-care workers and patients be tested and treated for vitamin D deficiency to prevent exacerbation of a respiratory infection.
H1N1 a 'dud' pandemic, Ont. health official says
November 12, 2009
CBC News
Despite a full frontal assault of news about the dangers of the flu and the importance of vaccination, a survey in late October revealed that only 36 percent of Canadians said they would get the shot. Lack of trust in the vaccine was cited as the main reason for vaccine opposition. Another poll in November found that 65 percent of Canadians believe the media has overreacted to the threat of swine flu.
Even many health workers aren’t convinced. In two separate surveys, in the
Canadian health officials and some newspaper columnists have reacted by accusing vaccine opponents of being conspiracy mongers or just plain irresponsible.
Who is right? Is the cure really worse than the disease? Let’s look at some numbers.
First, the disease. Swine flu had killed 161 Canadians as of November 12. That works out to one death per 200,000 Canadians in the past six-and-a-half months. Over the same period of time, major cardiovascular diseases typically claim 240 times more Canadian lives (about 39,000), cancer claims 230 times more (37,000 deaths), pneumonia kills 18 times more (2,800), and accidental falls claim eight times more (1,260), according to calculations based on 2005 Statistics Canada figures.
H1N1 has about the same death rate as hernias. But we don’t see scary front-page headlines for months on end about hernias, pneumonia, or falling down.
“It’s really not causing—and is not going to cause and nowhere has caused—significant levels of illness or death,” Dr. Richard Schabas,
Pandemic tests Homeland Security, Health and Human Services departments
Public needs assurances that government can handle the worst
11/20/2009
By Sen. Joseph Lieberman
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Chairman
A shortage of the H1N1 influenza vaccine is causing anxiety in Connecticut and around the country as the virus continues to spread with alarming speed and to take a high toll at a time of year when we don't normally encounter significant cases of flu. This predicament raises the question of whether the H1N1 virus is getting ahead of the public health system's capacity at this moment to prevent it and respond to it. I believe it is. While this new flu strain is affecting most people mildly, it has affected a small percentage severely, and vaccine production problems have meant that some identified by the Department of Health and Human Services as high risks for infection have not been able to get inoculated.
HHS promises national delivery of millions vaccine doses a week for the next few months. Connecticut has received 140,000 more vaccines in the past two weeks. Hopefully, this resupply will begin to ease the anxieties of those in the highest risk categories who want to be vaccinated.
But it does not ease my own concerns about HHS' miscalculations….Furthermore, unlike traditional seasonal flu that disproportionally affects the elderly, the H1N1 virus is impacting young people, with over 50 percent of hospitalizations and a quarter of all deaths occurring in people under the age of 25. Alarmingly, young children are at very serious risk, with about 540 pediatric deaths tallied so far.In Connecticut the median age of infection is 18 years old. Pregnant women are also being hit hard: Of the over 100 pregnant women in intensive care with the virus through late August, 28 died.
Although the federal government worked with private sector partners to develop a vaccine in record time, manufacturers vastly overestimated the number of doses that would be available by now….I have asked Secretary Kathleen Sebelius for an explanation as to why HHS did not recommend that the vaccine go only to those most at risk as soon as it learned that manufacturers would not be able to meet their goals.We must avoid similar miscalculations in future public health crises, and we must address the problem of our limited domestic vaccine production capability.
I LIKE JOE LIEBERMAN, BUT SENATORS SHOULD USE ACCURATE NUMBERS WHICH ARE MORE AVAILABLE TO THEM THAN ANY CITIZEN IN ORDER NOT TO FRIGHTEN THEIR CONSTITUENTS. THE NUMBERS BELOW FROM THE CDC ON NOV 21, 2009.
WHO’S TELLING THE TRUTH? – A BIG PROBLEM DURING THE SWINE PANIC
Press Briefing Transcripts
THOMAS FRIEDEN, DIRECTOR OF THE CDC
Thomas Frieden: Good afternoon, everybody. Today we're releasing new estimates as we said we would. The bottom line is that by November 14th, the day up to which those estimates include, many
times more children and younger adults, unfortunately, have been hospitalized or killed by H1N1 influenza than occurs during a regular flu season. . It is likely to show that the disease continues to decline as the current wave recedes.
Flu season generally lasts until May, and as I’ve indicated before, when we've asked flu experts from around the country and around the world what they think will happen in the rest of this flu season, about half think will have a lot more cases between now and May. And about half think we won't. The truth is we don't know. Only time will tell. And that's why vaccination remains the most important thing you can do to protect yourself and your family from H1N1 influenza.
What we have seen so far reiterates that people under the age of 65 are most heavily impacted by influenza. By November 14th, many times more children and younger adults, unfortunately, have been
hospitalized or killed by H1N1 influenza than happens in a usual flu season. Specifically, there have been, we estimate there have been nearly 50 million cases, mostly in younger adults and children. More than 200,000 hospitalizations which is about the same number that there is in a usual flu season for the entire year. And, sadly, nearly 10,000 deaths, including 1,100 among children and 7,500 among younger adults. That.s much higher than in a usual flu season. So as we've seen for months this is a flu that is much harder on younger people and fortunately has largely spared the elderly until now. What that means, if you calculate it, is that about 15% of the entire country has been infected with H1N1 influenza and that means about
Betsy McKay: Thanks, Dr. Frieden. Betsy McKay from the Wall Street Journal. One clarification: is this the same -- are you using the same methodology for the estimates as did you in October? I just wanted to see if we have 10,000 deaths now, is that -- which means there have been
Thomas Frieden: So, the methodology details are all given on our website. Please refer to our website for that detail. s not quite that you can take the current estimate and subtract the previous estimate to see what happened in the past month? There is some correction for late reporting. But there has been a lot more disease in the month that’s reported than in the months before. In terms of comparison of this year.s flu with H1N1 influenza with seasonal flu, we know that it.s much milder for older people. It’s much less likely to result in death because older people are much less likely to get infected. But it has been a much worse flu season for people under the age of 65, particularly younger adults and children. The estimate we have – the estimate that we're releasing here is not done in the same way that gives us the 36,000 estimate. That estimate is a different methodology. And will give a slightly larger number than this number would give. But if you were to compare, even though it's not a directly applicable comparison, under
REALLY?????
THE CDC DIRECTOR’S FIGURE DOESN’T QUITE JIVE WITH THE CDC REPORT OF MARCH 2010!
Science
December 2009
VIRUS OF THE YEAR: The Novel H1N1 Influenza
For years, scientists have been warning about the potential for an influenza pandemic on the order of the 1918 Spanish flu. They imagined the culprit would surface in
1/25/2010
CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths in the United States, April - December 12, 2009
The data confirms that people younger than 65 years of age are more severely affected by this disease relative to people 65 and older compared with seasonal flu. With seasonal influenza, about 60 percent of seasonal flu-related hospitalizations and 90 percent of flu-related deaths occur in people 65 years and older. With 2009 H1N1, approximately 90% of estimated hospitalizations and 88% of estimated deaths from April through December 12, 2009 occurred in people younger than 65 years old. However, because severe illness and deaths have occurred among people 65 and older and because supplies of 2009 H1N1 vaccine have increased dramatically, CDC is now encouraging all people 6 months and older, including people older than 65, to get vaccinated against 2009 H1N1.
This methodology and the resulting estimates continue to underscore the substantial underreporting that occurs when laboratory-confirmed outcomes are the sole method used to capture hospitalizations and deaths. CDC has maintained since the beginning of this outbreak that laboratory-confirmed data on hospitalizations and deaths reported to CDC is an underestimation of the true number that have occurred because of incomplete testing, inaccurate test results, or diagnosis that attribute hospitalizations and deaths to other causes, for example, secondary complications to influenza. The estimates derived from this methodology provide the public, public health officials and policy makers a sense of the health impact of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. While these numbers are an estimate, CDC feels that they present a fuller picture of the burden of 2009 H1N1 disease on the United States.
WE ARE GLAD IT MAKES THE CDC “FEEL GOOD”.
Clin Infect Dis. MAR 2010
Association between severe pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus infection and immunoglobulin G(2) subclass deficiency.
Severe pandemic 2009 influenza A virus (H1N1) infection is associated with risk factors that include pregnancy, obesity, and immunosuppression. After identification of immunoglobulin G(2) (IgG(2)) deficiency in 1 severe case, we assessed IgG subclass levels in a cohort of patients with H1N1 infection.
METHODS: Patient features, including levels of serum IgG and IgG subclasses, were assessed in patients with acute severe H1N1 infection (defined as infection requiring respiratory support in an intensive care unit), patients with moderate H1N1 infection (defined as inpatients not hospitalized in an intensive care unit), and a random sample of healthy pregnant women.
CONCLUSIONS: Severe H1N1 infection is associated with IgG(2) deficiency, which appears to persist in a majority of patients. Pregnancy-related reductions in IgG(2) level may explain the increased severity of H1N1 infection in some but not all pregnant patients. The role of IgG(2) deficiency in the pathogenesis of H1N1 infection requires further investigation, because it may have therapeutic implications.
pen Access
Feb-2010
American Journal of Pathology
Of swine, birds and men -- pandemic H1N1 flu
Pandemic H1N1 influenza of swine origin is a novel influenza strain that causes a generally mild respiratory illness, but results in severe disease or death in vulnerable
individuals. High risk groups include the very young and old, people with compromised immune systems, and pregnant women. Unlike seasonal flu, which only infects cells located in the nose and the throat, pandemic H1N1 can replicate efficiently in cells deeper in the lung, similar to the more pathogenic H5N1 'bird flu'…. in contrast to seasonal flu, pandemic H1N1 and highly pathogenic avian flu could infect the conjunctiva, a membrane that lines the eyelids and covers the white part of the eye, suggesting an additional route of transmission as well as differences in receptor binding profile. However, pandemic H1N1 did not differ from seasonal flu either in replication in nose, throat, and lung cells or in induction of an inflammatory immune response, which is dysregulated in high pathogenic avian flu infections. Taken together, these results are consistent with epidemiological data that suggest that while pandemic H1N1 has subtle differences in transmissibility and pathogenesis from seasonal flu, it does not induce as severe disease as bird flu viruses…."the pandemic [H1N1 virus] (but not the seasonal virus) infects conjunctival epithelium, suggest[ing] that the eye may be an important route for acquiring infection with [pandemic H1N1] as compared with seasonal influenza viruses.…[However,] the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus is comparable with seasonal influenza in inducing host innate responses and does not have the intrinsic properties of cytokine dysregulation possessed by [the highly pathogenic avian influenza] virus or the 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus." "While generally mild in the majority of cases, the pandemic H1N1 virus is not just another seasonal flu virus and has subtle peculiarities of its own".
JOHN CANNELL, M.D. VITAMIN D NEWSLETTER MARCH 2010
I hear through the grapevine that the CDC has discovered that, of the 329 American children who
have died so far from H1N1, vitamin D levels in the children who died were lower than in children who survived the swine flu. Maybe something can be done to save our children by next winter? Not to mention the 16,000 adult Americans the CDC thinks died from H1N1.
THE SWINE FRAUD
http://www.sodahead.com
PharmaMedia To Squelch EU Council's Secret Investigation Into H1N1 Vaccine Fraud
JAN 2010
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) will hold a secret hearing next week into the apparent manipulation by BigPharma of the World Health Organization's (WHO) global H1N1 flu campaign. Experts predict the secrecy will be maintained by the PharmaMedia that controls mainstream news.
The PACE hearing currently advancing was prompted by Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg, chief of health in the Council of Europe representing 47 countries. This inquiry will address the drug cartel's "false flag" pandemic, and the WHO's scandalous promotions of swine flu vaccinations that were "fast tracked," inadequately tested, and now causing more harm than good.
The sanctioned vaccines and drugs, such as Tamiflu, are burdening governments financially and poisoning people globally, experts say.
During my interview of Dr. Wodarg on January 14th, he mentioned he was not re-elected by the German people last September. Studying his previous investigations into criminal drug industry operations and cover-ups, it is likely his defeat was rigged.
"As head of the subcommittee for health," Dr.Wodarg reported from his home in
"Many countries in Europe are very angry about what the WHO did and how they decided to have a pandemic when there was just a mild flu; and this whole thing was in favor of those companies who had prepared the pandemic plans, and who only needed the judgment of the WHO to have them set in power, and to earn them money," Dr. Wodarg explained.
The Council is expected to consider the sudden inexplicable proclamations of H1N1 vaccine shortages instigated by BigPharma's advertising gurus paid to respond to widespread distrust of the manufactured flu fright and vaccine sales hype.
Global pandemic promoters used frightful messages to convince scientists, doctors, and global populations that pandemic H1N1 threatened to kill millions. Instead, the virus caused only a tiny fraction of deaths reported during a normal flu season.
PharmaMedia to Squelch Crimes
"PharmaMedia controls the mass mind more effectively than any covert psychological operation in world history," said Dr. Leonard Horowitz, a Harvard-trained media expert and world leading vaccine risk analyst. Dr. Horowitz is also the Editor-in-Chief of Medical Veritas journal.
Few people realize the connections between major drug companies that produce H1N1 vaccines and media moguls on the boards of directors of BigPharma's leading companies.
According to Dr. Horowitz, media moguls spin the news and mass mindset impacting geopolitics, economics, and governmental policies on behalf of BigPharma because they are heavily invested in the drug cartel. News blackouts and promotional propaganda are all that is needed to maintain the status quo in favor of ongoing fraud and mass murder. This is his conclusion based on rock solid evidence his colleagues and contributors have published in the peer review science journal Medical Veritas.
What if Dr. Wodarg, Dr. Horowitz, and the Health Minister of
Who Ordered the Shortage Marketing?
To diagnose this surreal tragedy accurately, one need only consider the source of the shortage marketing directive. There was a dramatic orchestrated change in global media promotions the third week of October. Investigators must ponder why adequate supplies of vaccines widely acknowledged before
The "H1N1 Pandemic Study Group" meeting was led by Laurie Garrett--a noted journalist whose works exemplify PharmaMedia's methods of conducting white collar bio-terrorism and psychological warfare. Her messages, like other authors "selected" for media stardom, create markets and stimulate sales for the petrochemical-pharmaceutical cartel, especially through lucrative sales of vaccines and drugs following frights.
Garrett's study group decided that the most effective response to the public's overwhelming aversion to getting vaccinated was to feign a vaccine shortage. One week later, the media, led by Thomas Glocer's Reuters News Service and Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation, suddenly declared the alleged shortages.
It turns out that Murdoch, directing most powerfully the influential media, including Fox News, the Associated Press (AP), Twentieth Century Fox, Time Warner, and much more, controls the Murdoch Childrens' Research Institute (MCRI) in
Murdoch's son, and heir apparent, James, the Chairman and Chief Executive of News Corporation for
Rupert's mother, Elisabeth Murdoch, is the grand matriarch of the Royal Victoria Women's Hospital in
Thomas Glocer, the CEO of Reuters, is also on the Board of Directors of Merck & Co., and a partner with Rupert Murdoch in the Partnership for
This PFNYC was founded by David Rockefeller who controls the CFR and World Health Organization (WHO). Rockefeller-approved Co-Chairs of the PFNYC include Rupert Murdoch and Lloyd Blankfein, the chief of Goldman Sachs who financed the merger of MedImmune and Astrozeneca, producers of FLUMIST--the nasal spray H1N1 vaccine. Blankfein holds millions, perhaps billions, of dollars of the company's stock.
"Now these unholy alliances have yet to be acknowledged adequately because these H1N1 vaccine investors have zero reason to expose themselves," Dr. Horowitz said. "So regardless of what PACE investigators find, these PFNYCpartners will either spin their stories suitably, or neglect them entirely, leaving populations clueless about what is really happening behind BigPharma's deceptive media."
"The goal of our work," Dr. Wordarg revealed, "is to reinstill trust into very important health organizations we need--such organizations who will cooperate internationally, and who are important in the network of international knowledge about possible health dangers."
"But this influenza was twice blown up," the German medical chief continued, "once as a bird flu, and the second time as the swine flu. There was no scientific evidence for either."
Oversupplies Trouble Governments
According to European news sources, because the vast majority of world villagers have refused these vaccines, governments cannot dispose of their stockpiles. They literally cannot give away the H1N1 vaccines that cost billions of dollars to purchase just a few months ago during the feigned emergency.
So health officials have also been pitching their excessive vaccine stocks more suspiciously and aggressively to broader markets.
On Friday, January 15, USA Today evidenced health officials resorting to media blitzes alleging the need for follow-up injections. The weak yet risky first doses of H1N1 vaccines taken by millions of people are inadequate alone, they warned, for protection against a virus admittedly causing less than 6 percent of the fatalities from a normal seasonal flu.
According to the Murdoch-AP-influenced Hawaii Star Bulletin, the H1N1 vaccines are now being offered to everyone. The plentiful injectables are now suitable for even low risk groups, health officials claim.
The determination of "risk groups" came from supposed reported cases collected by the CDC early in the pandemic. Later it was learned that their data was overblown by 84-97% according to a CBS News investigation widely publicized in late October, 2009. Thus, there is no good reason to assume the risk groups were identified legitimately.
"We have a very powerful investigation advancing," in the EU, said Dr. Wodarg. He cited "the very doubtful way the WHO acted, and the whole matter, of the H1N1 scandal."
"I think we should start with this [obvious breach of faith]," the retiring health chief of PACE said of the manufactured flu frenzy. "I am open to investigating to find out more," Dr. Wodarg concluded, referencing the little publicized connections between the makers of H1N1 vaccines and the media manipulators with private equity investments in these vaccinations.
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